An additional 275 individuals were participating in the JONES surname DNA group that I had joined. Only two of these matched my 12 marker Panel! What in the world...at least the genealogy world? If we all came from a common ancestor [the first "Adam" Jones], why did not more of us match at the 12 marker testing?
The first question was what was the haplogroups that all these JONES belong? I abstracted the following :
Of the 275 individuals who had joined the Jones surname group, 235 had haplogroups listed. Of these, 209 [76%] were R1b1! [At least most of us shared a common haplogroup.]
The remaining haplogroups were: R1a = 2%, I = 11%, E = 6%, G = 3%, J = 2% and Q = 1/235. Thus, haplogroup R [R1b and R1a] made up 78% of us in the group. Haplogroup I [Scandinavian] were 11%. Haplogroup E were 6% [Central Africa]. Haplogroup G were 3% [Asia Minor]. Halogroup J were 2%. [Middle East]. Only one individual was haplogroup Q [Native American].
To compare this to Wales! [for haplogroup distribution.]
JONES - R1b 76 % I1 - 11% G - 3% E - 6% R1a - 2% J - 2%
WALES- R1b 82% I1 - 6% G - 4% E - 2% R1a - 2% J - 1.5% I2b - 1% T - 1%.
Wow, pretty good match! More to come.
Friday, May 20, 2011
Monday, May 16, 2011
Markers, Markers, and more Markers
Panel 4 [38-67] returned. A lot more numbers; Alleles, DYS#, and Locus were all over the place. Now what? No exact matches. A bunch of numbers all in a row. Let's see if one can sort this all out.
As best as I understand it, my DNA to 67 markers is uniquely mine. The first 12 markers [Panel 1] showed that there were 26 others that had an exact match with mine, and one person was off 1 marker. [11/12 match]. Of the 26, only two were JONES! Panel 2 [markers 13-25] showed only three folks who almost matched. Two with 24/25 and one with 23/25. The two Joneses hung in there, and only a Person remained. By Panel 3 [ 26-37 markers], only one Jones remained at 35/37 markers. By my Panel 4 [38-67], all folks had left the building. Now what does all this mean?
One Jones, matched 11/12 showed that we shared a common ancestor some 47 generations ago. [95% probability]. The exact match at 12/12 brought this down to generation 29. A pretty good move. An exact 25/25 match would bring the generation down to 13, but only two matched at 24/25, and one matched 23/25. The best here is for a Jones and Person going back 20 generations. The one Jones that matched 23/25 would go back to generation 27. By Panel 3, only one Jones remained, showing a 35/37 match bring us down to the 14th generation. If I had an exact match on the 67 markers, it would show that our most recent common ancestor was 6 generations back! Wow, after all this, I could only go 6 generations back. As it stands now, those sharing their DNA information that matches my Jones family goes back 12 - 14 generations.
For the genealogist, I give the following figures as an estimate of how to use the DNA panel results:
12/12 exact match would go back 29 generations [95%], 23 generations for 90 %.
25/25 exact match would go back 13 generations [95%], 10 generations for 90%.
37/37 exact match would go back 7 generations [95%], 5 generations for 90%.
67/67 exact match would go back 6 generations [95%], 4 generations for 90%.
My haplogroup is R1b. My haplotype is R1b1a2.
Now what about all those other Joneses who did not match? More to come.
As best as I understand it, my DNA to 67 markers is uniquely mine. The first 12 markers [Panel 1] showed that there were 26 others that had an exact match with mine, and one person was off 1 marker. [11/12 match]. Of the 26, only two were JONES! Panel 2 [markers 13-25] showed only three folks who almost matched. Two with 24/25 and one with 23/25. The two Joneses hung in there, and only a Person remained. By Panel 3 [ 26-37 markers], only one Jones remained at 35/37 markers. By my Panel 4 [38-67], all folks had left the building. Now what does all this mean?
One Jones, matched 11/12 showed that we shared a common ancestor some 47 generations ago. [95% probability]. The exact match at 12/12 brought this down to generation 29. A pretty good move. An exact 25/25 match would bring the generation down to 13, but only two matched at 24/25, and one matched 23/25. The best here is for a Jones and Person going back 20 generations. The one Jones that matched 23/25 would go back to generation 27. By Panel 3, only one Jones remained, showing a 35/37 match bring us down to the 14th generation. If I had an exact match on the 67 markers, it would show that our most recent common ancestor was 6 generations back! Wow, after all this, I could only go 6 generations back. As it stands now, those sharing their DNA information that matches my Jones family goes back 12 - 14 generations.
For the genealogist, I give the following figures as an estimate of how to use the DNA panel results:
12/12 exact match would go back 29 generations [95%], 23 generations for 90 %.
25/25 exact match would go back 13 generations [95%], 10 generations for 90%.
37/37 exact match would go back 7 generations [95%], 5 generations for 90%.
67/67 exact match would go back 6 generations [95%], 4 generations for 90%.
My haplogroup is R1b. My haplotype is R1b1a2.
Now what about all those other Joneses who did not match? More to come.
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
The Next Panels
In a short time, results for panel 2 [13-25 markers] and panel 3 [26 -37 markers] returned. A whole lot of numbers flashed before my eyes. There were no exact matches for this set of DNA markers. Only two matches were found at a "Genetic Distance - 1", and only one match for a "Genetic Distance -2". This meaning that for two folks in this data base, they have 24 out 25 matches [for genetic distance one], and one has 23 out of 25 sites match. Only Jones and Pearson remained from the first twelve marker test.
As I read the probability graphs sent with this information, it would appear that my "Genetic Distance - 1" folks had a 95% chance that we shared a grandfather back to 16 - 20 generations. This moved us closer by 4 - 8 generations. Still, not many folks would have their genealogy back 16 generations. For the "Genetic Distance - 2" it would means a 95% chance that we had a common ancestor at the 23 - 27 generation back. Essentially this was no difference from the 12-marker exact matches! What was one to do? Perhaps the last panels would help, but the light in the tunnel was fading. What about the rest of the testing, panel 4, markers 38 - 67? Time will tell.
My results for panel 2 and panel 3 are available to anyone who would like to compare results. Please leave a comment with an e-mail and we can share results.
As I read the probability graphs sent with this information, it would appear that my "Genetic Distance - 1" folks had a 95% chance that we shared a grandfather back to 16 - 20 generations. This moved us closer by 4 - 8 generations. Still, not many folks would have their genealogy back 16 generations. For the "Genetic Distance - 2" it would means a 95% chance that we had a common ancestor at the 23 - 27 generation back. Essentially this was no difference from the 12-marker exact matches! What was one to do? Perhaps the last panels would help, but the light in the tunnel was fading. What about the rest of the testing, panel 4, markers 38 - 67? Time will tell.
My results for panel 2 and panel 3 are available to anyone who would like to compare results. Please leave a comment with an e-mail and we can share results.
Saturday, May 7, 2011
The Right Branch
While waiting for the results of the next DNA panels [panel 2 (13-25), panel 3 (26 - 37)] an e-mail was sent to all those who had a 12-marker exact match. It read:
"Hello All,
This is sort of a group letter to those who match my DNA panel 1-12. Pretty amazing stuff to find that so many (25 listed) match exactly. We must all share a common ancestor with some fairly uncommon surnames, at least compared to mine JONES! My family has been in Kentucky (USA) for 200 years. We came to KY from Virginia (USA) were we arrived in 1649. We were supporters of Charles I and needed to make a speedy exit following his beheading. Prior to this we were in the London (Gray's Inn) and Rochester area around 1599. Before this we were from Wales in the Valley of Dee, beginning from around 850 AD. My 24th generation grandfather was Ninnian ap Cynrig (around 1050 AD) who resided in the area called Maelor Cymraeg. According to the information as I understand it now, this would be our common ancestor. Does any of this match your own family history? I would love to correspond with any who have an interest."
So I waited. Six e-mails returned as not active. Of the remaining 19, only two responded. The JONES of course, and a Pritchard.
I had not examined the surname Pritchard, but we shared some family information. Most amazing was the fact that a family of Pritchard originated in the same area of Wales with connection to related families! [A description is given Dwnn, Vol. II, p. 163.] How about that I thought, I must be on the right branch of my family tree after all.
"Hello All,
This is sort of a group letter to those who match my DNA panel 1-12. Pretty amazing stuff to find that so many (25 listed) match exactly. We must all share a common ancestor with some fairly uncommon surnames, at least compared to mine JONES! My family has been in Kentucky (USA) for 200 years. We came to KY from Virginia (USA) were we arrived in 1649. We were supporters of Charles I and needed to make a speedy exit following his beheading. Prior to this we were in the London (Gray's Inn) and Rochester area around 1599. Before this we were from Wales in the Valley of Dee, beginning from around 850 AD. My 24th generation grandfather was Ninnian ap Cynrig (around 1050 AD) who resided in the area called Maelor Cymraeg. According to the information as I understand it now, this would be our common ancestor. Does any of this match your own family history? I would love to correspond with any who have an interest."
So I waited. Six e-mails returned as not active. Of the remaining 19, only two responded. The JONES of course, and a Pritchard.
I had not examined the surname Pritchard, but we shared some family information. Most amazing was the fact that a family of Pritchard originated in the same area of Wales with connection to related families! [A description is given Dwnn, Vol. II, p. 163.] How about that I thought, I must be on the right branch of my family tree after all.
Monday, May 2, 2011
Well, It's About Time
As a genealogist, having my own DNA analyzed was at first a hard decision to make. I had spent 50 years reseaching my family tree using the old library method, and blood hound techniques. This produced results that I felt were pretty accurate. Or were they? DNA was to prove me right or wrong? What if all my research proved to be wrong? I had traced my JONES surname back to Wales. What if DNA showed I was from China? Oh man, maybe I sould leave this DNA stuff alone?
It took several years to decide to go ahead and have my DNA tested. It only took a couple of months to get the results. Twenty five exact matches for my 12-marker test! I've hit the jackpot! Well let's see who are these folks? There is a Claxton, Amshoff, Boyle, Tilton, Mauradoglu(x2), Dohanrich, Sharp(x2), Gilmore, Welrich, Johnson(x2), Prichard, Gill(x2), Leonard, Pearson, Maudire-Janton, Fournier, and only one other JONES! What in the world? I had never heard of most of these surnames! How could I have exact 12-marker DNA.
An explaination which came with the results stated: "...if you match another person exactley with the same surname or a variant, you have a 99.9% likelihood of sharing a common ancestor with that person." This information went on to say, "This individual is described scientifically as the Most Recent Common Ancestor (MRCA)." A graph was included that gave an estimate of how long ago this common ancestor lived. The graph showed that on a 12/12 match, "...a 90% probablity that the MRCA lived no longer than 23 generations"! There was a 95% probabitity that the MRCA lived no longer 29 generations.
No longer than 23 generations! Not many folks would have their genealogy past 6-8 generations. Maybe the next series of DNA markers will help? Well maybe, it's not about time yet?
My 12-marker test as reported:
Locus 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
DYS# 393 390 19 391 385a 385b 426 388 439 389-1 392 389-2
Alleles 13 24 14 12 11 14 12 12 12 13 13 30
For an explaination of these terms see my post "Terms, Terms, and more Terms", Wednesday, December 22, 2010.
It took several years to decide to go ahead and have my DNA tested. It only took a couple of months to get the results. Twenty five exact matches for my 12-marker test! I've hit the jackpot! Well let's see who are these folks? There is a Claxton, Amshoff, Boyle, Tilton, Mauradoglu(x2), Dohanrich, Sharp(x2), Gilmore, Welrich, Johnson(x2), Prichard, Gill(x2), Leonard, Pearson, Maudire-Janton, Fournier, and only one other JONES! What in the world? I had never heard of most of these surnames! How could I have exact 12-marker DNA.
An explaination which came with the results stated: "...if you match another person exactley with the same surname or a variant, you have a 99.9% likelihood of sharing a common ancestor with that person." This information went on to say, "This individual is described scientifically as the Most Recent Common Ancestor (MRCA)." A graph was included that gave an estimate of how long ago this common ancestor lived. The graph showed that on a 12/12 match, "...a 90% probablity that the MRCA lived no longer than 23 generations"! There was a 95% probabitity that the MRCA lived no longer 29 generations.
No longer than 23 generations! Not many folks would have their genealogy past 6-8 generations. Maybe the next series of DNA markers will help? Well maybe, it's not about time yet?
My 12-marker test as reported:
Locus 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
DYS# 393 390 19 391 385a 385b 426 388 439 389-1 392 389-2
Alleles 13 24 14 12 11 14 12 12 12 13 13 30
For an explaination of these terms see my post "Terms, Terms, and more Terms", Wednesday, December 22, 2010.
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