Monday, May 16, 2011

Markers, Markers, and more Markers

Panel 4 [38-67] returned. A lot more numbers; Alleles, DYS#, and Locus were all over the place. Now what? No exact matches. A bunch of numbers all in a row. Let's see if one can sort this all out.

As best as I understand it, my DNA to 67 markers is uniquely mine. The first 12 markers [Panel 1] showed that there were 26 others that had an exact match with mine, and one person was off 1 marker. [11/12 match]. Of the 26, only two were JONES! Panel 2 [markers 13-25] showed only three folks who almost matched. Two with 24/25 and one with 23/25. The two Joneses hung in there, and only a Person remained. By Panel 3 [ 26-37 markers], only one Jones remained at 35/37 markers. By my Panel 4 [38-67], all folks had left the building. Now what does all this mean?

One Jones, matched 11/12 showed that we shared a common ancestor some 47 generations ago. [95% probability]. The exact match at 12/12 brought this down to generation 29. A pretty good move. An exact 25/25 match would bring the generation down to 13, but only two matched at 24/25, and one matched 23/25. The best here is for a Jones and Person going back 20 generations. The one Jones that matched 23/25 would go back to generation 27. By Panel 3, only one Jones remained, showing a 35/37 match bring us down to the 14th generation. If I had an exact match on the 67 markers, it would show that our most recent common ancestor was 6 generations back! Wow, after all this, I could only go 6 generations back. As it stands now, those sharing their DNA information that matches my Jones family goes back 12 - 14 generations.

For the genealogist, I give the following figures as an estimate of how to use the DNA panel results:

12/12 exact match would go back 29 generations [95%], 23 generations for 90 %.

25/25 exact match would go back 13 generations [95%], 10 generations for 90%.

37/37 exact match would go back 7 generations [95%], 5 generations for 90%.

67/67 exact match would go back 6 generations [95%], 4 generations for 90%.

My haplogroup is R1b. My haplotype is R1b1a2.

Now what about all those other Joneses who did not match? More to come.

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